Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to another large fuel hike for South African motorists in February, following a significant increase in January.
The CEF data shows an under-recovery in prices across the board, expected to rise around 78 cents per litre for petrol, and 60 cents per litre for diesel.
- Petrol 95: increase of 78 cents per litre;
- Petrol 93: increase of 79 cents per litre;
- Diesel 0.05%: increase of 60 cents per litre;
- Diesel 0.005%: increase of 60 cents per litre;
- Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 62 cents per litre.
While the mid-month data serves as a snapshot, the Department of Energy makes adjustments based on a review of the full period. Furthermore, the outlook can change significantly before month-end.
Price changes are adjusted so that the over- or under-recovery during the prior month will be corrected in the following month; the over- or under-recoveries are rounded up or down to the nearest full cent so that the effect of rounding contributes to the clearing of the cumulative balance of the individual products on the slate.
However, the mid-month prices provide a strong indication of moving trends. Prices are affected by two main components – the rand/dollar exchange rate, and the changes to international petroleum product costs, largely driven by oil prices.
At mid-January, the ZAR/USD exchange rate is contributing around 4 cents to the under-recovery, while rising international product prices are contributing around 75 and 55 cents per litre to the under-recovery for petrol and diesel, respectively.