By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
South Africa will likely miss its binding 2030 carbon emissions targets under the Paris climate agreement, in light of a decision to further delay the decommissioning of aged coal power stations, warns the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC).
South Africa is the world’s 11th biggest greenhouse gas emitter and has one of the world’s highest per capita emissions.
It had committed under the Paris Climate Accords – a legally binding treaty on climate change – to cut emissions to between 350 and 420 million tonnes by 2030, from 442 million tonnes in 2020.
That commitment helped South Africa secure initial pledges of $8.5-billion for its Just Energy Transition Investment Plan and these pledges have since increased to $11.5-billion.
The PCC report quotes government’s draft Sectoral Emissions Target Report, which states that South Africa is on track to meet its 2025 NDC target and that the 350-million CO2-eq tons target could be achieved with more ambitious actions in the electricity and transport sectors. The 350-million CO2-eq tons is said to align with South Africa’s contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, a target that appears to be increasingly difficult to achieve.
The report goes on to caution, however, that if key policies — such as the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan with its prescribed electricity build and decommissioning plans — are not achieved, the 2030 target in the NDC may not be met.
To achieve this, it planned to decommission eight coal-fired power plants, six by 2030 and the remaining by 2034, as power makes up half of its emissions, but switching to a renewable energy policy has been hampered by delays.
Newly appointed Forestry, Fisheries and the Enviroment Minister Dion George has promised wide consultation on South Africa’s next NDC, which will have to take account of Eskom’s successful appeal of the National Air Quality Officer’s October 2023 decision requiring the State-owned enterprise’s coal stations to comply with minimum emission standards.
Eskom said the decision would exacerbate loadshedding by leading to the shutting of 30 000 MW of capacity, as the cost of retrofitting the plants to meet air-pollution limits would be a prohibitive R300-billion.
The PCC report also points to an ongoing “mismatch between commitments and action”, noting that South Africa’s strong climate policy and just transition commitments are not reflected in practical outcomes.
Only 28 of the 95 actions outlined by the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy are listed as fully implemented or currently being implemented, the PCC notes.
The reports states that there are contradictory public policies and positions, particularly regarding the future of the energy sector.
“The lack of consensus about the pace of the coal phaseout is delaying the implementation of necessary policy measures to prepare for and enable the transition, such as the draft 2023 Integrated Resources Plan, the Integrated Energy Plan, and the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan.”
The report’s release came only days after President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Climate Change Bill, which sets a legal mandate for South Africa’s national climate response and institutionalises the role of the PCC.
It enables the alignment of policies that influence South Africa’s climate change response, to ensure that South Africa’s transition to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and society is not constrained by policy contradictions.
The law outlines that aims to boost South Africa’s capacity to cut greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate resilience, while minimising job losses by boosting the green economy.
It also aims to improve coordination among national departments to support South Africa’s commitments under the Paris Agreement’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), which outline our goals for reducing emissions.
It formally sets out the functions of the PCC, which includes providing advice on the Republic’s climate change response to ensure “the long-term just transition to a climate-resilient and low-carbon economy and society.”