By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says government, together with Eskom, are working on measures to mitigate the shortfall during the winter season.
Ramokgopa was giving an update on the grid and progress being made on the Energy Action Plan on Friday (5 May).
He said with demand expected to increase up to between 32 000MW to 37 000MW, “the next 150 days will be very difficult” and interventions are already underway.
“The first one is that the work on improving the Energy Availability Factor [EAF] … is continuous and we have been confident that we are going to begin to see these improvements. [Eskom] will continue to ensure that we undertake substantial maintenance and we did that during the summer period and we have seen – temporarily – some improvement in six power stations.
“The second one is maximising the use of the Open Cycle Gas Turbines [OCGTs]. We are doing everything possible. I was at Ankerlig [power station] meeting with the team…to ensure that there is technical preparedness to help us to ensure that we are able to fully exploit the OCGTs.
“The third area in relation to immediate intervention is to scale up our work on demand side management. We know that there is significant potential there especially at the household level. Eskom ran a very successful campaign in 2010 and they were able to save about 3000MW. We think that that’s still possible now with the maturity of technology, we will be able to roll out rapidly,” he said.
On longer term interventions, Ramokgopa said Eskom is nearing finalisation of a deal which could add much needed capacity onto the grid.
“Eskom is finalising contracting close to 400MW of energy through the Standard Offer and Emergency Generating programmes with 100MW already added onto the grid from Kalvin Power Station in Johannesburg.
“Work is at an advanced stage to procure emergency power solutions for a period of not more than five years because it is emergency [procurement]. There is an opportunity that presents itself for us to get 1000MW from Mozambique, [Eskom] is still pursuing that through a power purchase agreement.
“Some of these projects [procured through government’s Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme] are connecting end of the calendar year and some next year. But we need to move with speed to address the issue that constitutes an emergency so that we are able to protect the South African economy and ensure that we are able to get people into jobs,” he said.
Eskom Group Executive for Generation Bheki Nxumalo said that the generation capacity is still severely constrained, with thousands of megawatts offline due to various issues.
This includes units offline at Kusile and Medupi, Koeberg Unit 1 still undergoing life-extension, and a multitude of other trips and outages.
Some of these lost megawatts will only be able to be recovered over the next year or so, with the group targeting 3,115MW to return by March 2024. However, assuming an energy availability factor of 60%, this will only translate to 1,869MW realised in actual energy to the grid.
Until these megawatts can be recovered, the country will be struggling with severe shortages, with the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) and Operational Capability Loss Factor (OCLF) well over the planned assumptions set last year.
UCLF refers to the generation units taken offline for unplanned outages, while OCLF refers to generation units taken offline for outages caused by things that are outside of the unit’s manager’s control. Both of these factors result in megawatts being unavailable to the grid.
In Eskom’s last system outlook, it forecast most of its load shedding stages on base outages of 13,000MW, with the ‘worst case scenario’ being 16,500MW offline. According to the data presented on Friday, UCLF and OCLF are expected to take between 14,000MW and 15,200MW offline in the next three months.
“It’s going to be a very tough winter,” Nxumalo said.
He said, the power utility is making some recoveries – a 300MW recovery from Tutuka 3 was realised in April 2023, with another 675MW expected to be recovered in May. However, most recoveries are anticipated later in the year, long after winter has passed.
This affirms what many analysts and energy experts have been saying: there is no short-term solution that will spare the country from a difficult winter.
Nxumalo added that they’re busy finalising a plan for winter, which will be presented once approved.
Meanwhile power utility says that, as a result of lower weekend demand and the return to service of some generating units, Stage 3 and 4 loadshedding will be implemented this weekend.
Since yesterday morning, a generating unit each at Hendrina, Lethabo and Tutuka power stations have returned to service.
Over the past 24 hours a generation unit each at Camden, Kendal, Majuba, and two generating units at Duvha power stations were taken out of service due to breakdowns. Furthermore, the delay in returning units to service at Arnot, Camden, Hendrina, Kendal and Matla power stations continue to add to the current capacity constraints.
Breakdowns are currently at 17 245 MW of generating capacity while the generating capacity out of service for planned maintenance is 4 468 MW.