By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
State owned power utility Eskom is forecasting that load shedding will drop to Stage 2 on Wednesday, after alternating between Stage 3 and 4 at the start for the week.
“Stage 4 load shedding will be implemented from 16:00 today until 05:00 on Monday. This will be followed by Stage 3 load shedding from 05:00 until 16:00 on Monday,” Eskom said.
“This pattern will be repeated on Tuesday and thereafter, various stages of load shedding will be implemented during the week.”
Breakdowns are currently at 16 646MW of generating capacity while the capacity out of service for planned maintenance is 5 107MW.
Over a period of 24 hours, no power is being imported from Cahora Bassa due to planned maintenance. This is expected to return to normal levels tomorrow morning, Eskom said.
In the same period, a generating unit at Tutuka Power Station was taken offline for repairs and a generating unit each at Duvha, Kendal, Kriel and two generating units at Arnot power stations were returned to service.
The delay in returning to service a generating unit each at Hendrina, Kendal, Matimba and Matla power stations is also contributing to the current capacity constraints.
During a press briefing on Sunday, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa attributed the recent escalation in load shedding to a trifecta of issues: demand remains high and often unpredictable; Eskom has suffered several outages; and planned maintenance has ramped up following the winter cut.
While the minister expressed confidence that the electricity situation will improve heading into the last quarter of the year – as the Kusile Power Station will be adding much-needed capacity to the grid, providing a buffer for increased maintenance elsewhere – he did warn that the situation is likely to remain volatile until then.
Ramokgopa said that the government and Eskom will not compromise on the ramping up planned maintenance, which will keep the grid under pressure with little room for failure.
“If (planned maintenance) coincides with a number of units failing on their own, then you are exposed. And the only option available to us is intensified load shedding.”
“It is a calculated risk. We are going to do this the right way; we are going to fix these units. It’s a short-term pain for long-term gain,” he said.