By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa says they’re not expecting conventional warfare in South Africa but the major threat that he foresees is “civil disobedience”.
This comes after Minister in the presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, highlighted the potential risk of a coup in South Africa.
However, she assured that no recent attempts had occurred, that intelligence agencies were monitoring suspected networks, and that measures had been put in place to mitigate this risk.
Her comments were made during a media briefing on Tuesday on the redacted version of SA’s national security strategy for 2024-28 adopted by the cabinet in March 2024.
They mark a historic shift in intelligence transparency in a country where talk of a military overthrow was once unthinkable.
Speaking to the media at 1 Military Hospital in Pretoria on Thursday, Holomisa stressed that the security of the state remains a key priority.
“I don’t want to get involved in the reports of what comes from the Cabinet because they are privy to better briefings.
“If there is anyone who has such plans, I think he or she is advised to stop that because it has been exposed. A coup is not discussed on social media, that’s not a coup,” he said.
Holomisa assured the public that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is fully capable of defending the nation against any serious threat.
He further indicated that the country is not facing any imminent external threats, but the military may be called upon to support the police in managing internal unrest.
“We are not expecting conventional warfare in South Africa. The major threat I foresee is civil disobedience, where we are asked by the police to assist and protect them.
“In that case, we will be ready to assist police, but as far as fighting an outside war with outside players or countries, that is not in the offing.”
Holomisa added that the army is now better equipped to respond to potential riots since the 2021 July unrest.
The experts said a successful coup in South Africa is unlikely, although political parties could sow discord and stoke unrest.
Gareth Newham of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said nothing is impossible, but a coup d’etat? Unlikely.
Newham suggests that the minister was likely trying to reassure the public as to South Africa’s State Security Agency capabilities and make clear the Department is vigilant to any potential threats to national security.
He says that, looking at countries which have experienced coups, they tend to have far weaker governance structures than South Africa.