By Alister Bull and David Herbling.
Africa’s labour force will almost double by 2050 and the continent urgently needs large-scale job creation to meet the demands of young people whose frustrations have already sparked Gen-Z protests.
That’s a key takeaway from the World Bank’s bi-annual assessment of sub-Saharan Africa, although it also found the region was proving more resilient than expected, as it forecast an increase in economic growth to 3.8% this year from 3.5% in 2024.
Still, more than 600 million people will join the working-age population over the next 25 years — making it the largest and fastest demographic shift in recent world history — meaning Africa must find a new growth model to deliver quality jobs at scale.
“The consequences of not solving these problems are hard to contemplate,” said Andrew Dabalen, chief economist for the Africa Region. “Certainly, they will be very disruptive and we’re beginning to see the signs of it, “he told a media briefing, citing recent demonstrations in Madagascar, Kenya and Nigeria.
Thousands of young people took to the streets of Madagascar more than a week ago to vent their frustration over the lack of jobs and government corruption, joining Gen Z protests that have broken out in Morocco and elsewhere amid frustration toward ageing elites.
The bank estimates that only 24% of the region’s employment qualifies as wage-paying, relegating most new workers to informal, low-paying jobs that limit the prospects for social mobility – fanning the anger of a youthful population that feels trapped in poverty.
“We should be very, very concerned about that,” said Dabalen. “It’s not obvious the status quo will remain.”
Quality job creation means a “structural shift” toward bigger companies that can drive productivity growth, cutting the cost of doing business in Africa and investing in the workforce so it can exploit new technologies, including artificial intelligence, he said.
Encouraging private investment is also important, the lender said, adding that every job created in tourism creates another 1.5 jobs in related sectors.
Debt distress
Africa faces serious constraints, including 23 countries at high risk of debt distress this year in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s almost half the continent — up from eight countries in 2014.
But it has also shown its ability to weather shocks and avoid the worst. Inflation rates have declined, currencies stabilised and even appreciated against the dollar, and governments are doing a somewhat better job of managing public finances as overseas aid shrinks.
The bank noted that protest movements “fueled by weak job creation, high costs of living, service gaps, and disputed tax measures — can stall consolidation, delay reforms, sap revenues, and complicate debt management.”
Still, the Gen Z demonstrators, for the most part, “are not trying to tear down their countries,” said Dabalen. “There is a lot of demand for better governance from young people.”