Regardless of what happens in the two big games featuring the coastal teams on Saturday afternoon, the fixture that could prove the most significant to the South African Vodacom United Rugby Championship challenge could be the one that closes the penultimate round in Edinburgh.
Provided the Vodacom Bulls do what the DHL Stormers did to Glasgow Warriors last week when they face the same team at Loftus on Friday, if the Edinburgh game against Ulster in Edinburgh goes the visiting team’s way, the quest to get three South African teams into next season’s Champions Cup will be complete before the final round of away fixtures in mid-May.
And it won’t even require the Cell C Sharks to beat Connacht at Hollywoodbets Kings Park or the Stormers to beat Leinster at DHL Stadium later in the day for that to be the case. For it will mean the South African teams will all start the final round of away fixtures in a position where it will be impossible for both Scottish teams to overtake them.
That is because the two Scottish sides end the regular season with a derby match in Edinburgh. Provided the game isn’t drawn, one will cancel the other out. And even if it is a draw, just one solitary bonus point will be enough for the third local team to be assured of the Champions Cup.
In order for all three local contending teams to qualify for the Champions Cup, the quest has always been for them to either finish ahead of the second Scottish team or to finish ahead of the third Irish team.
An Edinburgh home win over an Ulster team that looked like it was still a bit shell-shocked from its agonising round-of-16 Champions Cup exit the previous week when it lost to Munster, won’t be the end of the world for the South Africans. It would mean the Sharks would potentially have the destiny of their fellow South African challengers in their hands when they close off against Ulster in Belfast two weeks later.
But apart from the fact winning in Belfast looks like a tough challenge for the Sharks, an Ulster win will be preferable in Edinburgh in the sense that will decide the issue this week. The South African teams won’t be heading overseas for the final round of away fixtures with Champions Cup qualification still in the balance.
The second Scottish team dropping out does look more likely than the third Irish team dropping out. Munster, currently third and one of three teams, together with the fourth-placed Sharks and fifth-placed Ulster, on 51 points, will back themselves to win at home against Cardiff on Friday night. And even if Ulster don’t beat Edinburgh, they will expect to be favourites against the Sharks at the Kingspan.
Edinburgh currently have 49 points, Glasgow have 50. If Glasgow lose to the Bulls, the Bulls will go from 48 to 52 or 53. The Sharks are already ahead of those two teams, and so, obviously, are the Stormers, who are second placed overall on 52 points.
The Emirates Lions are not in the equation when it comes to the Champions Cup, but the three contending teams do all face potentially tough fixtures in that last round.
The Stormers go to Llanelli to play Scarlets, who have picked up impressive momentum since returning from South Africa. The Ospreys could well be playing for the Welsh Shield when they host the Bulls. And Ulster are always formidable opponents at the Kingspan.
What the Ospreys and Scarlets will be playing for in that final round will depend heavily on the outcome of their derby clash in Wales on Saturday evening (same kick-off time as Stormers-Leinster). A Scarlets win will wrap up their Shield challenge as they currently lead the Ospreys by nine points. But the Ospreys do have a game in hand, so a win for them will bring them back into contention and leave Scarlets in a must-win situation against the Stormers a fortnight later, provided the Ospreys win their additional match that was rescheduled by Covid, which is against the Dragons on 8 May.
It needs to be clarified that the requirement for the South African teams to finish ahead of the second Scottish challenger only applies when it comes to clinching Champions Cup spots. That is because the four Shield winners automatically qualify, thus meaning the top Welsh team does not need to finish in the top eight.
When it comes to URC play-off places, however, the top eight placed teams go through, which is why in the Stormers’ case they consider that part of their mission to have already been accomplished.
WEEKEND VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
Vodacom Bulls v Glasgow Warriors (Pretoria, Friday 7pm)
Munster v Cardiff (Limerick, Friday 8.35pm)
Emirates Lions v Benetton (Johannesburg, Saturday 2pm)
Cell C Sharks v Connacht (Durban, Saturday 4.05pm)
Parma Zebre v Dragons (Parma, Saturday 4.05pm)
DHL Stormers v Leinster (Cape Town, Saturday 6.15pm)
Ospreys v Scarlets (Swansea, Saturday 6.15pm)
Edinburgh v Ulster (Edinburgh, Saturday 8.35pm)
TOP 8 PLACINGS AFTER 16 GAMES: Leinster 61, Stormers 52, Munster 51, Sharks 51, Ulster 51, Glasgow 50, Edinburgh 49, Bulls 48.