By Kevin Rademeyer, Sports Journalist.
Photo Credit: US Open.
Jannik Sinner won’t be walking through the gates at Flushing Meadows this year, and his absence has changed everything.
The world No 1’s withdrawal with a right knee injury has removed the player who, for much of 2026, had made the hard court season feel like a private contest. Now the US Open has a different shape, and almost everyone in the draw will believe they have a chance.
Alexander Zverev inherits the top seeding, but the attention is likely to remain on the other side of the draw, where defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is attempting something that hasn’t been done in the men’s singles since Roger Federer in 2008: winning the US Open twice in succession.
It would be some comeback.
Alcaraz hasn’t played competitively since April after suffering a wrist injury. He arrives in New York with no proper match preparation and immediately faces Roman Safiullin, the big hitting Russian who beat him in Paris.
That’s hardly a gentle return.
Yet Alcaraz has never been particularly interested in doing things the easy way. He has already won two US Open titles, including last year, and held serve in 98 of 101 service games during that run. Sinner’s withdrawal also removes the man who has been his principal rival in recent Grand Slam tournaments.
“There’s no better tournament than the US Open to be back and feel the love and the warm welcome that the people here always give to me,” Alcaraz said.
The love will be there. Whether the wrist and the legs are ready for seven best of five matches is another matter.
His route is particularly demanding. Arthur Fils, fresh from winning in Cincinnati, and American Ben Shelton sit in his quarter, while Novak Djokovic occupies the same half of the draw.
That potential semifinal is one of the matches the tournament has been built around.
Djokovic is 39 and chasing history again. A 25th Grand Slam title would put him alone at the top of the all time men’s list, and with Sinner missing, the opportunity is too significant to ignore.
His first match is against Mariano Navone, but the nostalgia arrives quickly if the seeds hold. Stan Wawrinka and Matteo Berrettini could meet in the opening round, with the winner potentially facing Djokovic.
Daniil Medvedev, the 2021 champion, is also lurking in Djokovic’s quarter.
The Serb has been through this territory many times, but age changes the calculation. The New York heat, the five set matches and the physical demands of a fortnight will test him. So will Medvedev, should they meet.
“That’s tough about tennis: You’re searching for confidence, and the thing is everyone who is in the Top 100 knows how to play tennis,” Medvedev said. “The moment you regress, for whatever reason, double faults, forehand mistakes, they’re going to get you, because they’re good tennis players.”
That may be the story of this US Open.
There is no Sinner waiting at the end of the road. There is no obvious certainty. Zverev has perhaps the strongest case on paper. The German won his first Grand Slam at Roland Garros and followed it with a run to the Wimbledon final. He has pushed both Alcaraz and Sinner deep into major matches and now has the draw in front of him.
He isn’t pretending the pressure isn’t there. “I feel like I’m one of the 128 players that are favorites in the draw,” Zverev said. There is a touch of mischief in that answer, but also a recognition of what has happened. The draw has opened.
Zverev’s reward for taking the No 1 seed is a quarter of the tournament that includes Alex de Minaur, while Felix Auger Aliassime and Flavio Cobolli occupy another projected quarter final path.
And then there are the Americans.
Their drought has become one of the familiar stories of the US Open. Andy Roddick remains the last American man to win the title, back in 2003, but this summer has provided genuine encouragement.
Ben Shelton won the Canadian Masters title and has established himself as the leading American seed. He also loves this stage. “I’m really passionate about playing here. It’s my favorite tournament of the year,” Shelton said.
The New York crowd will expect something from him, but Shelton has already shown he can handle the noise. His explosive serve and willingness to attack make him dangerous over five sets, provided he can control the lapses that have occasionally undermined him.
Taylor Fritz has already reached a US Open final, while Frances Tiafoe remains one of the most dangerous players in the draw when Arthur Ashe Stadium gets behind him.
Tiafoe remembers watching the greats there as a youngster. Now he wants to join them. “I have just such fond memories as a kid. I’ve seen some incredible matches, so many legends playing at the highest level, night matches on Ashe,” he said. “I always wanted to be a part of it.”
That matters in New York. Tiafoe feeds off the occasion in a way few players can replicate.
The draw also leaves room for younger men to make their move. Arthur Fils, Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien have already shown they aren’t overawed by the biggest stages. Brandon Nakashima arrives after reaching the finals in Montreal and making the Cincinnati semifinals.
None needs to be considered a favourite. That may be precisely why they are dangerous.
For Zverev, there is a chance to make the French Open title the beginning of something rather than the culmination of a long wait. For Djokovic, it is another opportunity to add one more extraordinary chapter. For Shelton, Tiafoe and Fritz, the home crowd will be asking whether this is finally the year an American man breaks through.
And for Alcaraz, there is the rather extraordinary possibility of returning from four months away and immediately defending his crown. The man himself knows what is expected. “There’s no better tournament than the US Open to be back,” he said.
With Sinner gone, nobody knows quite what comes next. That’s what makes this one so difficult to call.