By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
State owned power utility has provided an optimistic update regarding its power system, hoisting expectations for Winter 2025 that suggest loadshedding may largely be avoided.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said their likely risk scenario indicates no load-shedding at their base unplanned loss assumption. Their worst-case scenario could see 21 days of up to stage 2 load-shedding.
Marokane noted that unplanned outage scenarios have been revised and currently range between 13,000MW and 15,000MW.
In the scenario that breakdowns remain below 13,000MW, Eskom anticipates spending a further R700 million on diesel to run its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) until 31 August 2025.
If unplanned losses reach 14,000MW, Eskom anticipates one day of stage 1 load-shedding. Under that scenario, its OCGT diesel budget will increase to R2.1 billion.
Should unplanned losses reach 15,000MW, Eskom anticipates that 21 days of up to stage 2 load-shedding will be required, and it will have to increase its diesel spend to R4.8 billion.
It should be noted that Eskom’s winter outlook is for the period from 1 April to 31 August 2025.
Chairperson Mteto Nyati said Eskom was not proud of the period between January and April, reporting that the five loadshedding episodes during the period had led to a board-level interrogation of the causes, which he said could be attributed primarily to people-related failures.
Nyati said remedial actions were being taken, particularly at the leadership level, to arrest the decline and consolidate a high-performance culture.
Group executive for generation Bheki Nxumalo said that the outage slips during summer were attributable to the enlarged scope of some projects to include enviromental upgrades, as well as capacity constraints, including within its supplier base.
The division was, thus, working on a different plan for the next outage cycle.
“We are talking with the team about planning differently for summer now. At least in winter we are dealing with one variable, which is the cold. Summer you are dealing with high planned maintenance and changing weather conditions, which makes it very difficult to recover once the units are off,” Nxumalo said.
The slippages, as well as the repair of the Kusile units that were using temporary stacks after a flue collapse, resulted in Eskom failing to achieving its 65% energy availability factor (EAF) target by the end of March.
Marokane said the introduction of additional capacity at Medupi and Kusile, together with the finalisation in July of another extended outage at Koeberg Unit 1 as part of additional actions required following its 20-year life extension approval, should provide Eskom with space to spread out maintenance in future.
He reported a 61% EAF for the financial year that ended on March 31 and announced a R16-billion, or 50%, reduction in spending on diesel during the year. However, diesel use had increased materially in the first few months of 2025 to close the gaps created by planned maintenance and unplanned events.
Meanwhile Energy and Electricty minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has announced that the load factor for proposed gas-to-power (GtP) plants in South Africa will be increased from 25% to above 50%.
The Minister said the policy change had been made following feedback from the market on what would be required to stimulate gas demand to solve what he described as an economic rather than an electricity problem.
“We are not resolving an electricity problem, we are resolving an energy problem and an economic problem: to be able to address the suppressed demand with regards to gas,” he said.
Ramokgopa’s statement comes amid ongoing discussions on how to solve South Africa’s so-called ‘gas cliff’; a scenario that will arise later this decade when natural gas supply to industry in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal will fall precipitously in line with tapering supply from Sasol’s Pande and Temane gas fields, in southern Mozambique.
Discussions on possible solutions have been under way for some time, including on the level of demand required to facilitate the creation of the infrastructure that would be required to replace the natural gas from Mozambique with imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Proponents of LNG imports have argued that “anchor” GtP demand is required to unlock investments in import terminals and pipelines, with projects being advanced in both Maputo, in Mozambique, and Richards Bay, in KwaZulu-Natal.
Ramokgopa said the 25% load factor outlined by the system operator for electricity would not be sufficient to “spur the industry” and that the load factor should thus be “50%-plus”.
Watch Live in the video below:
Video Courtesy of Eskom.