By Gavin Rich
It might be stretching it to suggest that Saturday’s decider in Cape Town is a re-run of the British and Irish Lions series, but Wales coach Wayne Pivac is right when he says the pressure at DHL Stadium is all on the Springboks.
By winning in Bloemfontein last week, Wales already exceeded most expectations for the Castle Lager test Series against the World Cup champions. They have at last broken their duck when it comes to wins against the Boks on South African soil, and the fact they now go to sea level with the series one-all after two inland test matches is already a massive win for them.
The reason it isn’t a repeat of the Lions series for the Boks is because there isn’t the same intense focus and global scrutiny that comes with the iconic once in every 12 year battle against the composite team from the four Home Unions. Winning on Saturday shouldn’t bring the same level of elation from Siya Kolisi’s men as they experienced just under 12 months ago when Morne Steyn clinched the series with his late penalty kick.
A NEGATIVE KIND OF PRESSURE
At the same time though, the fact they are playing against a team made up of players from just one Home Union nation does bring a different kind of pressure, perhaps a more negative one. Bok coach Jacques Nienaber spoke during the week about last week’s defeat being a disaster. You could debate that, as the South Africans were trying something different, and history may reflect that there were learnings at the Toyota Stadium that will put the Boks in a better space in the build-up to next year’s Rugby World Cup than they might otherwise be.
Those who criticise Nienaber for making 14 changes last week appear to suffer from memory failure. Many were calling out for him to spread his squad depth by giving players opportunities. Yes, it was quite a radical change, and it might have been a more sensible approach to mix and match selections over the first two tests.
It could even be argued that throwing so many less experienced players into the same team was unfair on them. It is normally considered best practice to introduce new players around a settled spine. But then that argument forgets that there were still very experienced players in the side last week – Handre Pollard, Eben Etzebeth, Marcell Coetzee and Pieter-Steph du Toit, while Thomas du Toit may be light in number of test caps but has been a good captain for his franchise when asked to take the armband.
What is also being forgotten is that until the 78th minute last week, that Bok team actually played better over the match than the previous combination did at Loftus. Pivac was right afterwards – his team was unlucky in Pretoria, it was the Boks who were unlucky in Bloemfontein. There were fine margins, as there always seem to be against Wales.
What the game did do though is relinquish South Africa’s proud history of never having lost to Wales at home, and the pressure is now on to hold onto the other record of never having lost a home series to Wales. In fact, it goes further than that – the Boks have never lost a home series against a Home Union touring team.
FINAL DRESS REHEARSAL FOR ALL BLACKS
That’s where pressure comes in, but it also comes in just in the sense that there are now 80 minutes of rugby remaining before the Boks face the All Blacks at Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit at the start of the Castle Lager Rugby Championship. That’s is a difference between this Wales series and the Lions series too – the Lions series was the most important juncture of the 2021 rugby year, whereas now you’d argue the most important games are to come.
The Boks are playing the All Blacks earlier than they usually do, and up to now they look well short of getting their performance to the level you’d expect from a world champion team. There were encouraging aspects to their game in Bloemfontein related to playing style, but they’ve been well short of their best in both matches.
Much of that might be down to their opponents. Looking back at the history of SA/Wales clashes over the past 11 years, back to the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand, suggests that the expectation the Boks would win easily was a bit fanciful. Only at Kings Park in the first test of the 2014 series has there been daylight between the teams in favour of South Africa.
WALES DON”T GET INTIMIDATED
A lot of that is down to the Wales being the one team that does not get intimidated by the Bok physicality – in fact they appear to relish it – and also being the team that may be most similar to South Africa when it comes to approach. Dan Biggar’s men looked like they were about to implode completely during a stage of the second half last week, when their lineout disintegrated, but generally they’ve been good at blunting the Bok forward strengths. Their defence is physical and organised and was what won them the game in Bloemfontein, while in Tommy Reffell they’ve got a genuine opensider who is a proper pain in the butt to opposing teams at the breakdowns.
Reffell will have a big role to play against a Bok team that has gone back to its first choice back row and at sea level the hosts don’t have the ally that helps them out at altitude and which was their biggest friend at Loftus, where they came back from a big deficit.
PLAYING FOR SOMETHING BIGGER THAN THEMSELVES
One of the other similarities between Wales and the Boks is that they do also appear on this tour to be playing for something that is bigger than themselves, just like South Africa do at World Cups. They arrived in the country with Welsh rugby at a low ebb, with the national team having lost to Italy and slipped down the rankings in a Six Nations tournament they won the previous year and their club game in a mess.
They’ve restored a lot of pride already and will be determined to close off with a series win that would be a momentous achievement for them and send out an unambiguous message that the epitaphs being sung about Welsh rugby a few months ago were premature.
Their one big strength is that they don’t go away, they are prepared to withstand the battering and the bruising. When tighthead Dillon Lewis and skipper Biggar were declared fit to play it was a massive boost for them, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be close for much of the way on Saturday too.
The pressure will be on the Boks to be more accurate and more clinical than they have been. Hopefully Jaden Hendrikse isn’t just wearing the No 9 jersey to produce a box kicking extravaganza, but the kicking is going to have to be better too.
But at the start of the series my prediction was that the Boks would be 12 points better and despite what we have seen over the past two weekends, I will stick to that. If the Boks produce their best game at what should be a packed DHL Stadium, they should get the result they deserved last week.
Anything less than that and they will be going into the back-to-back home clashes with New Zealand on 6 and 13 August with their backs to the wall and under even more pressure. Nienaber gives the impression he enjoys the pressure his men are facing this week, it is part of their learning experience. But he won’t appreciate the space his team will be in if they go into a game against the All Blacks having lost two in three and suffered a first ever series defeat to a Home Union team on South African soil.
Teams
South Africa: Damian Willemse; Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi; Handre Pollard, Jaden Hendrikse; Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Elrigh Louw, Faf de Klerk, Willie le Roux.
Wales: Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, George North, Nick Tompkins, Josh Adams, Dan Biggar, Kieran Harley, Taulupe Faulatua, Tommy Reffell, Dan Lydiate, Adam Beard, Will Rowlands, Dillon Lewis, Ryan Elias, Gareth Thomas. Replacements: Dewi Lake, Wyn Jones, Sam Wainwright, Alun Wyn Jones, Josh Navidi, Tomos Williams,Gareth Anscombe, Owen Watkin.