By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
A national survey of voters conducted on behalf of The Brenthurst Foundation has found that the ANC’s support has fallen to 39%, making a coalition government highly likely after the general election on 29 May.
The survey shows that the DA’s has risen to 27 per cent, and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe Party is at 13 per cent.
The EFF stands at 10% of the vote, according to the survey, while the IFP’s support has fallen to 2%, down from 7% in October 2023.
Voters are unhappy with governance, with some 80% saying the country is “going in the wrong direction” and the opposition-governed Western Cape and City of Cape Town ranked as the best-governed areas of SA by some margin.
Voters also appear to have been alienated by the ANC’s foreign policy agenda, which has alienated traditional allies in the West as the party indulges Russia, China and Iran.
Some 43% of voters believe that South Africa should align itself with the West and other democratic nations, with 22% saying it should align itself with Africa and only 19% saying it should align itself with BRICS, suggesting that the ANC’s decision to move into the BRICS camp may be costing it votes.
More than 50% of voters said the ANC’s policy on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts would not affect the way they voted. But 24% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC as a result of its policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while 23% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC over its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In Gauteng, the survey has the DA at 32% of the vote (up from 24% in October 2023) and the ANC at 34% (down from 37% in October 2023).
The Multi-Party Coalition (comprising the DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, ACDP, among others) has 38% of the vote.
There could be a political shake-up in KZN, with Zuma’s MK Party set to be the largest party in the province with 25% of the vote with the ANC (20%), DA (19%) and the IFP (19%) running neck-and-neck.
The aggregated vote for the Multi-Party Coalition is 39%.
In the Western Cape, the DA retains a majority with 53% (down from 56% in October) while the ANC has risen sharply to 35% from 22% in October.
Voters cited the biggest issues facing the country as:
- Unemployment (28%);
- Corruption (27%);
- Load shedding (17%); and
- Weak leadership (12%).
Weak leadership overtook crime (11%) as the fourth most pressing issue.
More than half of voters blame “the ANC government of the last three decades” for South Africa’s problems, with 11% saying apartheid was to blame.