By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
The Central Energy Fund’s first daily figures for the August fuel-price review period pointed to an over-recovery of about R3.67 a litre for 95 petrol and R3.70 for 93 petrol. Diesel looked even better: about R5.19 for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R5.82 for the cleaner 0.005% grade.
CEF publishes updates on estimated adjustments to the fuel price for the next month, based on the fuel basket cost, up to the end of weekdays in the review period.
At the start of the review period for August’s prices, both the prices of petrol and diesel were set for substantial declines.
That was at a time when the hostilities in the Middle East had cooled significantly due to a ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The price of a barrel of Brent Crude oil went from around $72 on 26 June 2026 to $88 on 17 July 2026, an increase of roughly 22%.
As a result, the over-recovery in the wholesale 50ppm diesel price had dissipated by 17 July. 500ppm diesel, which is primarily used in heavy industries, has swung to an under-recovery of 24 cents per litre.
If oil prices remain roughly the same or increase, and the dollar-to-rand exchange rate remains unchanged or the rand weakens, a diesel price hike seems likely.
While retail petrol prices are still showing over-recoveries, these are much lower than at the start of the review period.
As of 17 July 2026, the expected reduction in the price of a litre of unleaded 95 petrol was R0.90, 75% lower than the R3.67 forecast at the start of the review period.
For unleaded 93 petrol, the anticipated reduction has shrunk by 74%, from R3.70 to R0.95. A week earlier, both were set for reductions of more than R1.50 per litre.
It should be emphasised that there is still more than a week remaining in the review period for August’s prices, so that the trend could reverse.
Commentary from economic and consumer experts in line with the expected fuel decrease in August:
Frank Blackmore Lead Economist at KPMG South Africa
Taking a look at the daily fuel price on the Central Energy Fund’s website, one could see that the over recovery is recorded for both petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin. Which means that if we took these numbers as of yesterday, we would see a reduction in petrol of around R1.26 to R1.30, a reduction in diesel of around R0.47 to R0.74, and a reduction in paraffin price of around R0.72.
We must however be clear that there’s still some time this month to go, and the break in the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz means that the fuel prices are continuing to rise. So it can be that over recovery is absorbed between now and the end of the month when prices are set.
Hayley Parry, Money Coach and Facilitator at 1Life’s Truth About Money
The expected fuel price cut in August is good news for South Africans, but it’s important not to mistake temporary relief for long-term financial recovery. While motorists may save a few hundred rand a month depending on how much they drive, most households are still navigating persistent financial pressures, from rising food prices and municipal tariffs to school expenses and debt repayments.
The reality is that many consumers don’t have a budgeting problem – they have a cash flow problem. That’s why every bit of relief matters. The question isn’t ‘What can I buy with the savings?’ but rather ‘How can I use these savings to improve my financial position?’
The 2026 1Life Insurance Generational Debt Survey found that 99% of South Africans say building wealth is a priority. That’s encouraging, but turning that ambition into reality starts with making intentional decisions when opportunities like this arise.
Rather than allowing the fuel saving to quietly disappear into everyday spending, consider putting it to work. If your fuel bill drops by R300 this month, use that amount to make an additional payment on a credit card or personal loan to reduce the interest you’ll pay over time. If debt is under control, channel the money into an emergency fund – even setting aside R200 to R300 each month can help cover unexpected expenses without relying on credit. Consumers could also use the savings to put money away for December festivities, while others may choose to increase their insurance premiums to stay up to date, so essential cover doesn’t lapse during difficult months.
Consumers should also remember that fuel prices are influenced by global oil markets and the rand exchange rate, both of which remain volatile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Today’s relief could easily be followed by increases later in the year. That’s why it’s wise to avoid adjusting your lifestyle every time fuel prices move.
Think of this fuel price cut as a financial ‘bonus’ – not one to spend, but one to strengthen your finances. Small, consistent decisions made during periods of relief often make the biggest difference when the next financial shock inevitably arrives. The goal isn’t just to save money this month; it’s to build habits that create lasting financial resilience.”