There is still one round to go in the league phase of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship and it promises to be a decisive weekend but the three South African teams at least know that they won’t be needing to win to secure their places in next season’s lucrative Champions Cup.
The Cell C Sharks and DHL Stormers had already booked their places with wins earlier in the day, but the final match of the weekend, in which Ulster edged out Edinburgh in a tight game at the DAM Health Stadium, ensured that the Vodacom Bulls join them without needing to win their final match against Ospreys in Swansea three weeks from now.
Make no mistake, there is still plenty to play for, with the SA Shield far from decided, and finishing order will also be crucial in the battle for all-important home ground advantage in the URC play-offs, for which the three local challengers have now also already qualified.
But Champions Cup entry, given what comes with it, was always the primary motivation, and with the Bulls, who are third placed among the South African teams currently, three points ahead of both Glasgow and Edinburgh going into the final round, it means that only one Scottish team can finish ahead of them.
The fact the Scottish sides meet in their return derby at Edinburgh’s DAM Health Stadium means that only one Scottish team can make it into Champions Cup qualification.
The way it works is that the eight top teams on the overall log advance to the URC play-offs, to be played out from the end of May into June, while the four Shield winners – Ireland, Scotland/Italy, Wales and South Africa – automatically qualify for the Champions Cup with the four next best teams joining them.
The Emirates Lions surrendered interest in the Champions Cup and the play-offs a while ago, but the quest for the other South African teams, if they all want to qualify for rugby’s equivalent of soccers Champions League, was always to either finish ahead of the third Irish team or the second Scottish team. That mission has now been accomplished with a round to go, with the final round Scotland derby now all about which of the two Scottish teams will advance to the lucrative Champions Cup next season.
Like many of the games this past weekend, the Edinburgh/Ulster game was brimful of intrigue and, although a low scoring fixture, it was engaging throughout the 80 minutes as Ulster took an early lead and then Edinburgh tried to come back at them. It was a first defeat for Edinburgh on their home field this season, with their only previous failure to bank a win being their draw to the Stormers last October.
Talking of the Stormers, their win over Leinster but failure to pick up a bonus point means that the local teams go into the final weekend pretty much all square in the battle for the Shield. The two coastal teams, the Sharks and the Stormers, are so closely matched at present that they both share the same points differential, with the Sharks appearing ahead of their local rivals on the log only because they have won more games (the Stormers have two draws on their record).
But unless they both draw on the final weekend, that will count for nothing, and both teams will have to go all out for a win. The Sharks do appear to have the tougher task, as they head to Belfast to face Ulster at a Kingspan Stadium venue where Ulster seldom lose. And Ulster broke their sequence of recent defeats with their close win over Edinburgh, with their failure to pick up a bonus point helping the other teams in the battle for second place on the overall log.
Ulster are currently fifth, one point behind the Sharks, Munster and Stormers, who are all on 56 points, with Leinster already assured of top spot by virtue of them having 62 points, six more than the chasing pack.
While the Sharks head to Ireland, the Stormers and Bulls will be heading to Wales to be playing the Scarlets and Ospreys respectively, and what this past round of fixtures did determine was that both of them will have something to play for. Ospreys halted the Scarlets’ impressive recent winning momentum with a good 54-36 win that leaves them just five points behind the Scarlets on the Welsh Shield log with a game in hand.
And that game in hand just happens to be against Dragons, who at the weekend handed Zebre Parma their first win in the competition for over a year.
Which of the two top Welsh teams is the stronger? It is hard to tell, as the Ospreys were at home for their win, but the Ospreys’ return to form, coupled with the return of their talisman Alun Wynn Jones, will make it harder for the Bulls than they might have hoped. The Bulls can still win the Shield, and get into the top four, if the other teams stumble.
One advantage the Stormers have is that their game at Parc Y Scarlets is the last game of the league phase of the competition, which means they will go into it knowing what they need. Apart from the Sharks going to Ulster, the other team up with them in second place is Munster, who end their campaign with a difficult away derby against Leinster. Munster played their way back into a contention with a good win over Cardiff at Thormond Park.
Scarlets’ defeat to the Ospreys removes them from the running for qualification for the URC play-offs so the eight play-off teams, with the order to be finalised after completion of the final round, will be Leinster, Munster, Sharks, Stormers, Ulster, Bulls, Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh.
Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship results
Vodacom Bulls 29 Glasgow Warriors 17
Munster 42 Cardiff 21
Emirates Lions 37 Benetton 29
Zebre 23 Dragons 18
Ospreys 54 Scarlets 36
Cell C Sharks 41 Connacht 21
DHL Stormers 20 Leinster 23
Edinburgh 10 Ulster 16.