By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Eskom has announced that load shedding will be reduced to stage 2 on Friday (25 November) and will remain at this level continuously until further notice.
Load shedding was previously expected to follow a stage 2 to stage 3 cycle during the day and in the evenings, respectively.
This follows the group securing sufficient diesel from PetroSA this week, which is assisting the utility in staving off two levels of load shedding through its open-cycle gas turbines.
Eskom had to escalate load shedding to stage 5 this past week after it ran out of diesel for the turbines. The company has burned through R12 billion worth of diesel this financial year, blowing way past its budget.
Had the group not been able to secure diesel with the assistance of the Department of Public Enterprises and PetroSA, it would not have been able to refill its fuel reserves until April 2023, keeping the country on a knife’s edge of high levels of load shedding.
While Eskom has secured 50 million litres of diesel, for now, energy experts say that the stock is unlikely to last that long and that a longer-term solution is needed. They have warned that without sufficient diesel supply, the country risks running into a total blackout.
Public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan said that he is in discussions with his counterpart in National Treasury, finance minister Enoch Godongwana, on a long-term solution for supply. This is likely to come at an expense to taxpayers, however.
The taxpayer is already on the hook for much of Eskom’s financial problems, with the Treasury announcing in October that it will be taking over around two-thirds of the utility’s R400 billion debt.
The prospects for load shedding, meanwhile, look bleak.
Addressing the media this week, president Cyril Ramaphosa said he is confident that Eskom, the government and stakeholders in the energy sector will overcome the load shedding challenge and bring an end to rolling blackouts.
This has been a promise from the government over the last 15 years.
The president said that it is easy to blame the government for persistent load shedding, but he said that the issues have persisted since at least 2007, long before the current administration came into power.
He has pinned his hopes for an end to the crisis on a wide-reaching energy plan that will see the rapid development of new green energy projects, alongside procurement of energy from the private sector.
South Africa is experiencing its worst year of load-shedding because of poor power station performance and Eskom’s declining energy availability factor (EAF).
According to the load-shedding app EskomSePush, there have been 2,900 hours of load shedding so far this year. It translates to 121 days of load-shedding, more than double last year’s 48 days.
Eskom often blames ageing infrastructure for the poor performance of its generation fleet and the low EAF.
In 2020, Eskom’s generation executive Rhulani Mathebula said Eskom’s increased failure rate is not due to a lack of skills but because of unreliable and ageing infrastructure.
Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter has also blamed ageing infrastructure for load-shedding, saying the older power plants are susceptible to failures and breakdowns.
However, an analysis by Daily Investor showed that the age of a power station does not automatically result in higher breakdown rates and a lower EAF.
To test Eskom’s claims, we compared the performance of Eskom’s Tutuka and Duvha power stations with two US-based coal power stations – Wansley and Scherer.
- The Duvah power station was first commissioned in 1980, with the final unit completed in 1984 (38-42 years old).
- The Wansley power plant in Georgia was first commissioned in 1976 (46 years old).
- Tutuka was first commissioned in 1985, with the final unit going online in 1990 (32-37 years old).
- The Scherer power plant was commissioned in 1982 and is of a similar age to Tutuka (40 years old).
If Eskom’s claim of ageing infrastructure causing a significant deterioration in performance is true, the US and South African power stations should show similar trends.
A significant difference in performance points to other factors, like poor maintenance, mismanagement, and a lack of skills.
We used the energy availability factor (EAF) – the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed – as a measure of performance.
From 2009 to 2021, Eskom’s Tutuka and Duvha had an average EAF of 64% and 56%, respectively. It means that since 2009 they were only available for 64% and 56% of the time they were needed.
In 2021, Tutuka and Duvha had average EAF of 37% and 44%, respectively. It is expected to be much worse in 2022.
Wansley and Scherer, in comparison, had an average EAF of 90% and 89%, respectively, over the same period. They were, therefore, available for 90% and 89% of the time they were needed.
An interesting observation is that Scherer and Wansley had an upward trend in their EAF figures as time progressed.
The large differential suggests that ageing infrastructure can still be reliable. With regular maintenance and using the latest technology, their performance can even improve.
In Eskom’s case, poor skills, mismanagement, and a lack of maintenance are the likely culprits for breakdowns and the low EAF – not ageing infrastructure.