By Jacob Mawela.
As South Africa’s 30-year-old democratic dispensation embarks upon an epoch of party-political coalition governance at national and provincial levels brought about by the results of the recent May 29, 2024 polls, the existence of a book published back in 2021 thrusts its relevance into the current political trajectory which will determine whether – at least for the presently unfolding five-year term of the Seventh Administration – the republic’s egalitarian order shall manage to withstand the uncertainty which will accompany its continued existence?
Produced by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), the tome, viz, Marriages of Inconvenience: The Politics of Coalitions in South Africa, is an in-depth endeavour amalgamating the know-how of a collective of renown Southern Africa-based academics and intellectuals whose contributions are aligned by MISTRA’s Director of Research and author, Professor Susan Booysen.
In the book’s preface, MISTRA’s Executive Director, Joel Netshitenzhe, expresses hope that it will help inform the exercise of coalition politics in the country – further stating his anticipation that understanding the determinants of positive and negative experiences will nudge parties towards constructive and sustainable coalition at whose core is a commitment to serve the people’s economic, social and political interests.
Whilst in the literary offering’s introduction, contributors, Booysen and MISTRA researcher, Amuzweni Ngoma, mention the volume as drawing attention on, inter alia: preparing South Africa for possible continuing turmoil at this form (party-political coalition) of politics likely becomes the new normal; dissecting the empirical side of how coalition politics has been unfolding across multiple localities at local and provincial levels; how it recognizes the peace-building and stabilization effects of coalition when they are formalized into government (this point resonates with how post the 2024 elections the provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal ended up being composed of an alliance in the form of the ANC, DA and IFP – to the circumvention of a coalition comprising of the perceived as radical MK and the EFF parties) et cetera.
Amidst naysayers’ contention that the present President Cyril Ramaphosa-helmed Government of National Unity (asserted by some as being more of a coalition than a GNU) won’t see out its five-year term – such a perspective might hold credibility since an analysis in the book points out to the cyclical nature of coalitions in which they are more likely to be constituted directly after an election, with the prospect of parties withdrawing (whether on account of having abrogated their manifestos and election promises or otherwise) ahead of another electoral cycle.
Composed of five parts dissected into chapters tallying to seventeen with each tackled by a fifteen strong team of contributors, the volume assumes themethodology of applying models appertaining to South Africa and beyond. Thus, the opening chapter sketches the contours of a period which had ANC electoral majorities diminishing and the Democratic Alliance falling short of consolidating its status as an opposition party by seizing the cudgels in order to occupy, along with other opposition parties, space vacated by the former in some instances.
In the third chapter, the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Change’s senior research associate, Heidi Brooks expounds upon possible lessons from lengthy coalition experiences in parts of the world such as Western Europe (where government coalitions have been comprised of the
largest parties in the parliamentary system) and Brazil (where a considerable ‘oversized’ coalition contained more parties than needed) where coalition governments are the predominant way of political life.
In a sub-section dealing with coalition stability within a section titled Coalitions and Democracy, Brooks draws attention to scenarios where other coalition models show ‘ministerial government’ by individuals and parties, and less adherence to the coalition agreement. (Hers is a noteworthy point given that just after South Africa’s cabinet ministers from the various parties had been sworn in, the Minister in the Presidency was compelled to set out guidelines of GNU policy upon whose adherence emphasis was laid.)
Chapter four has the African Union Commission’s Director of Political Affairs, Khabele Matlosa addressing the interface between electoral and party systems in which South Africa is placed in the comparative Southern African context. In a segment within the chapter titled, The Impact of Coalitions on Electoral Systems: Lessons Learnt, Matlosa identifies five types of party coalitions within which he mentions Governments of national unity which took root in South Africa between 1994 and 1997 (which involved the ANC, the New National Party and the IFP), the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2002 to 2006 (which experienced more of a transitional government) and Zimbabwe during 2008 and 2013 (comprising of a power-sharing arrangement among ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change).
GNUs, points out Matlosa, emerge typically in post-conflict situations, often as part of outcomes of peace agreements tasked with overseeing the development of a new constitution and other fundamental reforms. (At this point, it’s worth reminding that South Africa’s recently constituted GNU at national and provincial levels – read KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng – albeit arrived at under different circumstances, is not a novel phenomenon – rather another iteration succeeding the one implemented back in 1994.)
Dissected into five part, chapter nine of part three of the volume has authoritative UCT academic Pierre de Vos analyzing the constitutional-legal dimensions of coalition politics and government in South Africa. Beginning by noting that the country’s constitution does not contain specific provisions
regulating the formation and functioning of coalition governments in the national, provincial and local spheres of government, he thereafter expounds the basic lesson about the country’s system of parliamentary government whilst shoring up his contribution with brief case studies bringing to attention either the viability or dysfunctionality of such systems.
In his conclusion, De Vos argues that where no party obtains a majority in the legislature – such a scenario might result in unstable government. In South Africa, he asserts, the problem with coalition government has been political (read the filibustering which had been the order of business at municipal level) rather than legal or constitutional. Where parties working together have large policy differences, the normal ideological glue which may hold coalitions together is absent.
As in the Ramaphosa-led 2024 GNU, Nelson Mandela’s 1994 equivalent had the ANC having to cogovern with the Inkatha Freedom Party from 1994 to 2006 in an arrangement characterized as a forced coalition. University of KwaZulu-Natal lecturer Lukhona Mnguni revisits this period in chapter 15 which saw Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s IFP amassing a 50.32% electoral lead in the provincial legislature, claiming 41 of the 81 seats, as opposed to the ANC’s 26. The ANC had deployed Jacob Zuma, Zweli Mkhize and Sbu Ndebele as members of the executive council with the intent of elevating its competition with the IFP and spreading its foothold in KZN.
Mnguni mentions that although the duo’s rapprochement provided for great political stability, the partners continued to view each other as political rivals. Despite being part of the KZN GNU, the ANC was effectively an opposition party. But the 1999 elections turned the situation around when the IFP suffered losses which reduced had its seats reduced from 41 to 34 while the ANC had its seats increased from 26 to 32 – thus strengthening its claim for joint governance of the province and rendering it difficult, as admitted by an IFP official, for the two to continue cooperating in the absence of a coalition agreement upon which the parties could hold each other accountable.
The tome’s last chapter by Professor Susan Booysen details essential driving forces, political party mindsets, trends and indicators which are associated with coalition practice. The content is extracted from international comparatives profiled and the rich collection of South African cases covered in the volume. In her contribution’s conclusion, she lauds South Africa’s enduring multiparty political system whilst cautioning of there being no indication that the drift towards more intensive coalition politics is fully appreciated across the political spectrum. Booysen further points out that South Africa has to accept that, in order to ensure political stability and pursue a better quality of life for all, it should now start mastering the science and art of coalition politics because, either in the short term or over the longer term, coalition politics may become the norm – as in many parts of the world.
Marriages of Inconvenience: The Politics of Coalitions in South Africa is published by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflections (MISTRA). Available at leading bookstores across South Africa and beyond, it retails for R380.
Review by Jacob Mawela, editing by Lehlohonolo Lehana.