By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Russian President Vladmir Putin is believed to have told President Cyril Ramaphosa he is willing to stay home and miss the Brics summit in South Africa.
The BRICS group of emerging economies, comprises of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is due to hold a summit in Johannesburg in August.
South Africa has been mulling its legal options if Putin decides to attend the BRICS summit because the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March issued an arrest warrant for Putin over the Ukraine conflict.
South Africa is an ICC member and would theoretically be required to arrest him if he attends the BRICS summit.
According to The Sunday Times, Ramaphosa had convinced Putin to stay home, citing sources close to the matter.
Ramaphosa was in Russia recently as part of a delegation of African leaders seeking peace between the country and Ukraine, which it invaded in February 2022 and has been waging war in ever since.
He used the opportunity to present Putin with three options around the BRICS summit: staying away, attending virtually, or attending in person but at another location.
Putin was amicable to option one, the sources said, with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov expected to come instead.
The question of Putin’s attendance has caused havoc in South Africa to the extent that it directly impacts local markets.
Markets were pushed into a panic as this narrative built momentum over the past few months and hit a peak after economists, analysts, and even the South African Reserve Bank flagged risks of the country facing secondary sanctions due to its ties to Russia.
This sent a message across markets that the country would be putting in excess of R400 billion’s worth of trade agreements with Western nations at risk if it continued its perceived support of Russia.
Ramaphosa has moved to break this narrative over the past few weeks, and having Putin steer clear of the BRICS summit will go a long way in easing the pressure on South Africa to do so.
Without the complex and politically fraught conundrum of having to arrest the president of a key BRICS partner, the government can direct its attention to other foreign policy tensions.
The Ramaphosa-led African delegation to Russia and Ukraine has already tried to douse talk of South Africa being pro-Russia – the president has made it clear that the war must end and peaceful measures be used – but questions still hang in the air around whether or not South Africa gave military aid to Russia.
The country faces an uphill battle shaking its pro-Russia perceptions.
Allegations by the US embassy that South Africa armed Russia in December 2022 when the Lady R docked in Simon’s Town under cover of darkness are still being investigated.
But even outside of this, participating in war games with Russia on the anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, allowing sanctioned vessels and aircraft to land at military ports, and anti-West utterances from the government party and other politicians cannot be swept away so easily.
Meanwhile ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said Ramaphosa will “at the right time” announce government’s decision on Putin.
Addressing the ANC Western Cape conference on Saturday, Mbalula said Russia was an important Brics partner for South Africa.
“The president and government have been given a mandate by the ANC to deal with this matter.”
“It is our turn to host the Brics summit and the president will at the right moment brief the nation and everybody else about what will happen, having exhausted all avenues of ensuring that Brics takes place successfully.”