By Gavin Rich.
There has been much talk this week about how the rescheduled Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures being played on Saturday can help the other South African teams, but the side that might most benefit could be the Cell C Sharks.
The Sharks host Ulster in the early game and the Emirates Lions welcome Glasgow Warriors to altitude in what should be a perfect local double header appetiser for those wanting to watch the Six Nations clash between Wales and England later in the day. The players and coaches of the DHL Stormers and Vodacom Bulls should join those who are riveted to their television screens, for they have a lot to gain from South African victories.
DURBANITES CAN HELP STORMERS’ QUEST FOR SECOND
Should the Sharks beat Ulster at HollywoodBets Kings Park, the Stormers could probably feel the race for second place is done and dusted. The gap would remain at 10, or nine if Ulster get a bonus point, and with four games to go that’s quite a lot of ground to make up for the men from Belfast.
The Warriors are also dangerous of course. They are just one point behind Ulster, in fourth, and are in ominous form, having done what the Stormers did last year by going through a long unbeaten sequence that extends back to November, stretches over 11 matches and is yet to be broken.
That solitary log point that separates Ulster from Glasgow is significant though from a Stormers viewpoint. In the sense that even a Glasgow bonus point win at Emirates Airlines Park will still leave them more than a win behind the Cape side in terms of log points. Again, with four games to go, it is going to be hard to make up that gap and will require the Stormers to slip unexpectedly.
BULLS ARGUABLY HAVE MORE RIDING ON THE GAMES
Both Ulster and Glasgow are arguably far more problematic for the Bulls. The Pretoria team has dropped out of the top four, and are now sixth. They have ground to make up if they want to secure a home playoff, which comes from being part of the top four, and Glasgow and Ulster wins will leave them well behind the eight-ball.
Munster, who are currently fifth, will also be hoping for the two teams ahead of them that are playing this weekend to trip up. Although in their case, and here is why the Sharks have a lot to gain by beating Ulster, there is a curveball. A Sharks win would lift them from seventh into Munster’s current fifth position.
Indeed, a bonus point win for the Sharks will see them tied fourth with Glasgow, though the Warriors would still have their game against the Lions to come. A top four finish which means a home playoff is suddenly beckoning for the Sharks if they get it right over the last part of the league phase of the URC season, much of which will be played at full strength. Which means the Durbanites will have their phalanx of Springboks back.
LAST CHANCE SALOON
The stakes are high though for the Sharks in this game. Defeat will leave them vulnerable to the sides behind them challenging for the top eight position that the Sharks covet (actually its top seven) for Heineken Champions Cup qualification. And before the Sharks go into the final sequence, which includes a trip to Scarlets on 25 March followed by them hosting Benetton and Munster, they have to head to Cape Town for the return game against the Stormers.
The Stormers have less to play for in terms of the Shield following their great away win against the Bulls last week, but will still be hard for the Sharks to beat at their home venue in Cape Town, where they haven’t lost since December 2021. That is particularly so if you consider how comprehensively the Sharks won the first round game in Durban.
It all amounts to the Sharks having to regard the Ulster game as a must-win, and in the quest for a home playoff it may well be last chance saloon time. . Which is what their centre Rohan Janse van Rensburg said during the week. He described it as a massive game and used the same word to describe the performance that would be required in order for the hosts to hit target.
The Lions have less to play for themselves as they are now out of the race for top eight qualification. There have also been enough stories about off-field ructions this week to further undermine the home team’s chances of winning. The Lions were due to name their team on Thursday but delayed that, and the scheduled press conference, until Friday. Of the two games, it is in Johannesburg where a visiting win is more likely.
Weekend Vodacom URC fixtures
Cell C Sharks v Ulster (Durban, Saturday 14.00)
The Sharks should feel they owe Ulster one for messing up their planned big day back in October. The home clash with Ulster was to coincide with a Sharks fan day and was also to be the first time the full strength Sharks team was to be unveiled for the first time. You can’t blame Ulster for getting sick, but they did have enough time in the week to call up healthy reinforcements from back home. There’s been some complaining in the Irish press this week about the inconvenience of this fixture, but it wouldn’t have been happening if they’d just fulfilled their obligation in October.
Of course, the Sharks had a better chance of winning that game as they would have had the use of their Springboks. But what they do have as a significant ally on Saturday is the oppressive Durban February humidity. It is late summer now, October was spring, and this game is also being played in the early afternoon. The Stormers spoke about how difficult the humidity was for them when they won in Durban three weeks ago, and they should be more used to it than Ulster will be. The conditions give the Sharks, who regained some confidence with their win over the Lions last week, a slight edge.
Prediction: Sharks to score narrow victory.
Emirates Lions v Glasgow Warriors (Johannesburg, Saturday 16.10)
The hopes of the other South African teams that the Lions would help them out by preventing Emirates Airlines Park from becoming a gateway to more comfort for the Warriors on the log were dashed by the news coming out of the Lions camp this week. A difficult season appears to have reached a head and the franchise has come close to breaking point, and reports of player unhappiness from several media outlets won’t have been met with any glee by those who need the Lions to win this one.
Even though the Warriors are without their Scotland internationals due to a clash with the Six Nations, they’d have come to Johannesburg with a good chance of winning. They have a South African coach in Franco Smith who knows a thing or two about playing at altitude. What will be interesting to watch though is whether the Warriors will be as frenetic with their tempo as they have been over the past few months. It is all very well playing like that back home, but at altitude it could just leave you gasping for air, as the Hurricanes found when they ran themselves off their own feet in a Super Rugby semifinal in Johannesburg in 2017.
That is the Lions’ big opportunity, though if Smith is wise he will instruct his players to manage their output early on. Like the Stormers did in Pretoria last week.
Prediction: Glasgow Warriors to win comfortably.