Shock inflation increase makes for a tough interest rate decision.

By Lehlohonolo Lehana.

South Africa’s headline consumer inflation rose to 5.9% year-on-year in October from 5.4% in September, Statistics South Africa data showed on Wednesday.

According to Stats SA, consumer inflation increased for a third consecutive month in October, with prices increasing on average by 0.9% between September and October – the highest monthly rise in three months.

The 5,9% increase is closer to the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target range.

To protect the value of the rand, the SARB uses inflation targeting, which aims to maintain consumer price inflation between 3% and 6%.

Chief Director for Price Statistics at Stats SA, Patrick Kelly, said four categories recorded annual inflation rates above 6,0% in October.

“Food and non-alcoholic beverages at 8,7%, transport 7,4%, health at 6,4% and restaurants and hotels at 6,3%. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) accelerated for a second consecutive month, rising to 8,7% in October from 8,1% in September and 8,0% in August.

“The 1,5% monthly rise was the highest since January this year (1,8%). The annual rate for bread and cereals slowed to 8,8% from 9,2% in September.

“Maize meal prices declined by 1,3% between September and October, lowering the annual rate for this staple down to 8,6%. Rice, on the other hand, was 20,8% more expensive than it was a year ago. 

“The average price of a kilogram of rice increased from R22,48 to R28,59 over this period,” said Kelly.

There was also a massive jump in the price of eggs amid the outbreak of bird flu in several provinces.

“Milk, eggs and cheese inflation quickened to 12,4% from 11,2% in September. Egg prices rose sharply in October, with the price index increasing by 13,4% from September. This pushed the annual rate to 24,4%.

“Prices for poultry-related products, including eggs, have come under increased upward pressure due to the outbreak of avian flu. The culling of millions of chickens resulted in market shortages and panic buying from anxious consumers,” he added.

The SARB, which kept its main interest rate unchanged at its last two policy meetings, will announce its final rate decision of the year on Thursday.

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