By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Statistical data shows that South Africa’s economic recovery remains fragile – which has been reflected by a drop in business confidence, say economists from the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
The group pointed to the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) for Q1 which showed a renewed deterioration in confidence compared to Q4 2020.
“This is even with the majority of the survey responses received after adjusted level 3 regulations were loosened somewhat in February as the peak of the second wave of Covid-19 infections had passed,” the BER said.
“The realisation that the economy’s recovery remains fragile, with slow vaccine rollout implying an almost inevitable third wave of infections as well as unaddressed structural constraints, likely weighed on confidence.”
Professor Shabir Madhi, executive director of the Wits Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit said that the country would likely see the first signs of a new wave in the next month or so.
“It is highly probable that it will start in May and June when we head into the cooler months, as people are more likely to gather indoors. But if people start gathering during that Easter period, then we might expect it to occur earlier,” he said.
Madhi added that the severity of the new surge may be driven by a new variant of the virus that has mutated.
“It also depends on what happens to the virus, if the virus undergoes further mutations, and if those mutations become resistant to the immune responses that are induced by the current variant and earlier variants,” he said.
Meanwhile, the country would need to give 140,000 shots a day to hit the 67% target by the end of the year.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) said that if the government doesn’t pick up its game in rolling out vaccines, the country will remain in an “endless loop of lockdowns and Covid-19 infections – which will cost lives and shove millions into an inescapable cycle of poverty”.
“There has never been a greater imperative for the South African government than this. Silence on this can only mean the crisis is worse than anticipated. That is why we need an urgent update on this process,” the party said.
The latest data published by the Department of Health shows that 145,544 people have been vaccinated in South Africa since the rollout started on 17 February 2021.