By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says, South Africa will “survive” this winter season thanks to a huge improvement in the power generation.
Ramokgopa, who had last month forecast “an incredibly difficult” southern hemisphere winter, on Saturday said power generation had been ramped up to achieve an average output of 60 percent, from 48 percent weeks ago.
Eskom imposes daily scheduled blackouts, called load-shedding, to safeguard the grid whenever demand outstrips supply.
In a promising shift, South Africa’s daily blackouts have dramatically decreased from 12 hours to approximately two hours per day in recent weeks.
“We have succeeded in maintaining these efficiency levels,” Ramokgopa declared.
The substantial turnaround has been credited to Eskom’s strategic deployment of top-tier generation experts to the worst-performing power plants. Their efforts have resulted in the output of these stations exceeding expectations, much to the minister’s satisfaction.
Expressing confidence in the current progress, Ramokgopa stated said he more than sure South Africa will “weather the winter.”
He made these comments during a national executive committee meeting of the governing African National Congress in a hotel located east of Johannesburg.
Ramokgopa said SA will avoid the grim scenario previously anticipated, especially as the “improvements will persist.”
The winter season’s peak demand, previously estimated at 34 000 megawatts, has come in lower at 30 000 megawatts, further alleviating the pressure on the energy grid.
Eskom meanwhile says it will suspend load shedding earlier than planned on Saturday (8 July).
This is due to a better-than-expected recovery in generating capacity.
Load shedding will be suspended from 12h00 until 16h00, thereafter the schedule will resume as previously communicated with stage 3 load shedding implemented from 16h00 until midnight.
Load shedding will be suspended from midnight until 16h00 on Sunday.
Professor Mark Swilling said South Africa would likely go back into stage four and stage six load-shedding in the near future and before the end of winter as weather conditions shift.
Swilling said the lower load-shedding stages South Africa has experienced over the past few weeks are due to a combination of unique conditions that the country should not expect to last forever – such as big industries cutting demand due to higher tariffs, fewer unplanned breakdowns, lower planned maintenance and higher-than-expected output from wind generation.
This warning has been echoed by other sectors as well, with the Reserve Bank (SARB) also noting in a report this week that energy generation is unlikely to meet demand sustainably until at least midway through 2024.