By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
State owned power utility Eskom does not expect to implement loadshedding over the summer months, if it manages to keep unplanned losses at power stations below 13 000MW.
Eskom presented its 2024/25 Summer Outlook today, where CEO Dan Marokane celebrated the utility’s 150 days without load-shedding milestone.
The power utility has not implemented power cuts in more than 150 days after a dramatic improvement in the performance of its fleet of mainly coal-fired power stations.
Marokane said that since the 2024/25 winter outlook delivered in April 2024, Eskom’s performance was consistently above expectations, and there has been a structural shift in the performance of the fleet
The utility has managed to reduce its diesel bill by over R10 billion year-on-year, showing that it did not need to rely on its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) to keep the lights on for the past 150 days.
Eskom managed to keep its average unplanned capacity losses to 12.4 GW during Winter, far lower than the 15.5 GW likely scenario it presented at the time.
Marokane said this has had a positive impact on South Africa’s economic outlook, with the Bank of America projecting a potential 2% growth for the country’s economy.
He said Eskom’s improved performance has also lifted staff morale.
Going forward, Eskom will institutionalise the interventions of the Generation Recovery Plan and close out actions from various independent reports, which remains the utility’s priority.
Marokane acknowledged that, despite Eskom’s improved performance and supply exceeding demand, load reduction has been necessary to protect the network and people in areas with rampant illegal connections.
Therefore, given these factors and Eskom’s improved fleet performance, the summer 2024/25 outlook base case planning is premised on:
- Unplanned outage scenarios have been revised, ranging between 13 GW and 15 GW. Last summer, this range was 14.5 GW and 17 GW.
- No load-shedding is expected if unplanned losses remain below 13 GW and, at worst, stage 2 if unplanned losses reach 15 GW.
Marokane said a sustained improvement in Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF), together with an expected 2,500 MW of additional capacity by March 2025, will guarantee that load-shedding is implemented only in exceptional circumstances going forward.
He said these positive results allow the utility to focus on the implementation of its long-term strategy aimed at delivering a competitive and sustainable future-proof Eskom.
Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati said, that the utility’s success at keeping load shedding at bay through the 2024 winter and beyond is only the first step in solving a number of systemic issues threatening South Africa’s energy security.
“As we move beyond load shedding, we should not get the impression that everything is hunky dory. There are a number of systemic issues that we are looking at,” Nyati said.
“Today I want to focus on two things, the big things that keep us awake: the problem of municipal debt is a huge one, while the other big issue … is illegal connections.”
Nyati said municipal debt continues to grow monthly and now threatens to spiral out of control if it isn’t dealt with urgently.
He emphasised that Eskom cannot solve the municipal debt issue on its own and called on society and the municipalities themselves to help the utility solve the problem.
Nyati also admonished some municipalities and metros for lawlessness, saying they are supposed to set an example to society. “We need society and the municipalities to help us with this. It is surprising that in some instances the moneys are being collected, but they are not being paid over to Eskom.”
Illegal connections are a second significant threat to energy security, with their impact felt through load reduction. Municipal infrastructure fails despite there being enough electricity to meet legal demand because the transmission lines and transformers that deliver power into homes cannot handle the illegal connections. This is especially true in the metros where household density is high.
According to Nyati, illegal connections are the main driver of load reduction. “We cannot continue to invest in transformers and then two weeks down the line those transformers have exploded. We are asking communities to work with us to try and address this issue.”
Beyond these “broad systemic issues”, the Eskom board has identified operational issues such as the need for strong leadership at all levels of the organisation as well as a dysfunctional organisational culture.
Nyati also said tariffs are still not reflective of costs, despite huge price increases over the past decade. He called on society and government to come together and drive a specific focus on non-payment and illegal connections.