By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has published its latest mid-year population estimates for 2024, which show that the South African population has reached over 63 million.
The data shows that the country’s population grew by approximately 835,513 individuals, marking a 1.33% increase from July 2023 to July 2024.
StatS SA released the Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) on Tuesday.
Provincial population estimates indicate that Gauteng remains the most populous province with nearly 16 million residents. KwaZulu-Natal follows with a population of 12.3 million.
Together, these two provinces account for about 45% of South Africa’s total population. In contrast, Northern Cape is the least populated province, housing just under 1.4 million people.
Diego Iturralde, the Chief Director for Demographic and Population Statistics, said over half of the population is female, totalling around 32 million.
“Provincial population estimates indicate that Gauteng remains the most populous province with nearly 16 million residents. KwaZulu-Natal follows with a population of 12.3 million.
“Together, these two provinces account for about 45% of South Africa’s total population. In contrast, Northern Cape is the least populated province, housing just under 1.4 million people,” said Iturralde.
Regarding life expectancy, Iturralde mentioned that life expectancy in South Africa has increased significantly, reflecting advances in medicine, public health, and socioeconomic development.
“South Africa has faced two pandemics between 2002 and 2024. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) pandemic caused a gradual loss of life over decades, whereas COVID-19 led to a sharp increase in mortality within months.
“According to the report, life expectancy at birth is now 66.5 years, a significant increase from the estimated 53.6 years in 2005,” he said.
He attributed this improvement to three key trends: the expanded rollout of antiretroviral therapy, the uptake of vaccinations and treatments for COVID-19, and the decrease in the infant mortality rate.
Looking at migration, Stats SA noted that migration patterns have regularised, which has fed into its estimations.
Tracking migration is difficult, Iturralde added.
While the country reliably registers births and deaths, which assists in estimating fertility and mortality, international migration surveillance systems have failed to accurately account for the number of international migrants entering the borders through land, boat, or aeroplane.
“While a concerted effort has been made to secure South Africa’s borders, irregular migration is a common problem contributing to migration data issues,” He said.
However, by triangulating a number of data sources i.e. the census, population age and sex structure seen in other surveillance systems such as education, health and employment, as well as censuses of other countries capturing South African migrants and tourists’ patterns, migration assumptions can be informed.
Using this method, Stats SA estimates that South Africa will see net migration of 758,538 people into the country between 2021 and 2026. This is up significantly from the previous estimation of around 592,000 people, given the lockdowns and pandemic restrictions in effect at the time.