By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
South Africa is now the closest it has ever been to Stage 8 load shedding, which will mean no electricity for 12 to 14 hours a day.
More than half (24 809MW) of Eskom’s installed capacity of 48 000MW was out of service on Monday morning, according to ailing power utility.
Experts, analysts and even Eskom itself are warning South Africans to brace for higher stages of load shedding.
Eskom announced on Sunday night that further breakdowns at its power stations have necessitated continuous stage 6 load shedding to be in effect until further notice.
In its alert, the group warned that “given the high number of breakdowns, there is a possibility of further changes on the stages of loadshedding at short notice.”
The return of all-day stage 6 load shedding is troubling, as the weekend sees lower demand – and the country is still in its summer months, which also have lower demand patterns.
The National Energy Crisis Committee (Necom) announced last week that Eskom has ample diesel supplies for now – which is helping shield the country from up to two stages of load-shedding during peak hours.
This means without the diesel-powered tubines, South Africa would already be at stage 8.
Heavy rains have also prevented the delivery of coal from the New Vaal Mine to Lethabo Power Station.
Lethabo’s three running units are at risk of shutting down if coal supply constraints are not resolved- which would mean more generating capacity would be lost.
According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), the electricity situation in South Africa remains dire.
The BER noted that despite recent heavy rainfall, Eskom was not battling with wet coal disrupting generation as it has in recent years.
Other energy experts have warned that the country will hit stage 8 – and beyond – by the middle of the year, given the winter demand and failing power availability from Eskom.
During his State of the Nation Address in early February, president Cyril Ramaphosa declared the power crisis a national state of disaster, saying the move would allow the national government to act with urgency to deal with the problem and protect the grid from collapse.
Government departments are yet to announce any new measures under the banner of the disaster.
The president also announced that he would appoint a new minister of electricity, whose sole focus will be to end load shedding. However, the president is yet to announce who will be filling this role, and has reportedly put off making changes to his cabinet until the end of the month.