By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
Statistics South Africa(Stats SA) has refuted Medical Research Council (MRC) report that the census 2022 results do not meet the standards, as unfounded and misleading.
This follows a technical report commissioned by the MRC. The report says the Stats SA’s 2022 census population estimate of 62-million people is overstated by a million people and that there are material discrepancies at district and municipal level.
Originally the census was to be carried out in 2021 but the Covid-19 pandemic delayed it.
“Although it is not clear to what extent preparations for a census in October 2021 were on track in March 2020, there is no doubt that the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic was a major interruption, forcing Stats SA to delay the census,” the authors explained.
They further write: “Unfortunately, the threat of the withdrawal of funding by National Treasury if the census was not undertaken in the financial year ending March 2022 offered Stats SA Hobson’s choice – either carry out the census in that financial year or lose the funding for the census, possibly to 2031. Thus, Stats SA was forced to undertake the census while not ready to do so, and entered the enumeration period in a state of significant unreadiness …”.
For example, field workers and staff were ill-prepared. Stats SA “perhaps relied excessively on the hope that untried remote data collection (e.g. via web or telephonic enumeration) would make things easier.” IT systems were not “fully stress-tested”.
As you go into finer detail from the national level down, the results become more “incoherent and implausible”.
Stats SA published a statement earlier on Thursday, Stats SA firmly denies claims that Census 2022 figures should be treated as estimates due to undercounting issues.
Stats SA said it was “dedicated to upholding standards of data accuracy ensured by quality checks at every stage of the census process, from data collection to fieldwork monitoring”.
A Post Enumeration Survey was carried out, in accordance with accepted practices around the world, a method to “detect and rectify any errors, ensuring the reliability of the data”.
It went on: “Stats SA firmly denies the Centre for Actuarial Research’s claim that Census 2022 figures should be treated as estimates due to undercounting issues.
“This assertion overlooks the foundation of our census work.” The accuracy of these numbers is further validated by a review conducted by a group of local and international statistical experts, under the supervision of the Statistics Council.
“The council has assured the minister in the Presidency and the statistician-general that the Census 2022 data is indeed reliable.”
Stats SA said the report prepared by the two researchers had “excluded insights shared during engagements with authors and inaccurately presents the findings as estimates than actual counts”.
It said it had provided comprehensive feedback, orally and in written form, to address the concerns outlined in the authors’ report.
“It is disconcerting that the authors published their findings without acknowledging the valuable insights and responses provided by Stats SA.”
Meanwhile Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni says government need to continue to support Stats SA and ensure it plays a pivotal role in providing critical socio-economic data that informs decision making across government and business broadly.
Presenting the Stats SA Budget Vote in Cape Town on Wednesday, Ntshavheni said it is statistical data and information that will give government insight into the nation’s needs and achievements, and will help monitor and evaluate the effectiveness and outcomes of government policies and programmes.
Therefore, understanding and managing the data ecosystem is crucial for the country to harness the full potential of data, make informed decisions and adapt to evolving business landscapes,” Ntshavheni said.
Ntshavheni said this will be achieved through collaboration, partnerships and platforms and that Stats SA must continue to lead in the South African data ecosystem to ensure that the data gap is closed.
Ntshavheni said as a government that considers itself to be located within communities and society, it will work with all sectors to secure growth, security and prosperity that all wish to enjoy in a lifetime and into the future.
“Therefore, Stats SA will be one of our key institutional assets on this quest for a better future. This asset, Stats SA, is a jewel in the crown of the capacity of the state and its rigour and integrity is globally respected.
“Stats SA itself has a productive, intergenerational mix of experience and institutional memory alongside the energy and innovation that comes with a cohort of statisticians and other professionals who were born and educated in this democratic dispensation.
“For the richness of Stats SA’s outputs, we are deeply indebted to the millions of South Africans, who trustingly and graciously share their information and time with us so we can have numerical picture of the nation as it goes about living and working,” the minister said.
Ntshavheni said Stats SA’s 2024/25 Work Programme reflects the drive to deliver the statistics that the country needs and can apply to build a better South Africa.
“Stats SA delivered the results of the first digital census to the nation in October 2023. The population census offers us the most comprehensive set of statistical information to the lowest geographic level,” she said.
The Medium‐Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for Stats SA is R2.65 billion for 2024/25, and R2.75 billion and R2.89 billion in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 financial years, respectively.