By Kedibone Phago.
Professor of Governance and Director in the School of Government Studies, North West University.
South Africa is having its seventh democratic elections run by the Independent Electoral Commission. This time around there is one obvious surprise which contributed significantly to the ANC’s decline. That is the formation of the MK Party. This is especially true in Kwa Zulu-Natal province.
The ANC has lost its majority and will need to come to terms with this reality. This reality also means that there will be a need to be part of a coalition government in KZN with the MK Party. Or they may choose to serve on the opposition benches and allow the MK party to take over the government with Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and other smaller parties.
There is also an emerging national picture which clearly indicates that ANC is losing its majority for the first time in 30 years. This has serious implications on the ANC in determining its policy direction. There are several options on the table for the ANC to consider. However, some of the potential coalition partners are expected to present unreasonable demands such as critical cabinet positions.
This matter could be made worse by a lack of coalition framework and guidelines at a national level. The choices mean that those parties in the moonshot pact with the Democratic Alliance are much likely to be considered if the wishes of investors and markets are to be considered. This is a much likely outcome for now as the current ANC’s leading faction is more business oriented led by Cyril Ramaphosa who is a businessman himself.
However, this may trigger unhappiness for those who feel neglected especially the more socialist faction within the party. This could emerge and influence the intra-party dynamics towards a more socialist leaning. Here, the reality is that as the ANC loses its majority, many comrades will become jobless and more desperate.
The Ramaphosa leadership would then be tested on their grip on the party while his deputy Paul Mashatile could more likely emerge as a leader for a socialist faction within the ANC. As we already know that the previous ANC presidents were recalled, the issues could play itself out once again leading to a national elective conference.
A loss for Ramaphosa or his faction would render him a lame-duck president susceptible to be recalled from the Office of the President of the Republic.
It is my assumption that if this situation unfolds, this would spell even more decline of the ANC in the next local government and general elections. This observation is premised on the clear message from the voters sending to the ANC, especially the middle class whose interests are mainly the provision of government and municipal services and were neglected by ANC government for many years.
The ANC, which had a calamitous Thursday, looks set to have an even worse Friday following the latest projection that puts the party in an even worse position than it was earlier.
Latest projection, modelled on a higher number of confirmed results, the ANC will come in at a lower number than initially thought. The ANC’s support could settle at 41.3%.