By Tobias Fanta.
Ahead of the 2026 World Cup, ActionNetwork.com has used Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict the outcome of the tournament.
- The model was fed key information regarding all 48 qualified nations, giving AI enough information to make data-driven predictions for the outcome of every group stage match and the entire knockout stage all the way to the final. In total, AI was fed 1,200+ data points across 25 variables to make its predictions.
- According to AI, France, Spain, England, and Argentina are predicted to make it to the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup.
- Subsequently, France is predicted to beat Argentina in the final and become the champion of the 2026 World Cup.
ActionNetwork.com spokesperson comments:
“By using advanced AI analysis, the outcome of the 2026 World Cup bracket was predicted based on key data, including recent international form, World Cup history, squad market value, coach profiles and much more. After predicting the group stage, the Round of 32, and the entire knockout stage, France was predicted as the outright winner of the tournament. AI justified its choice for the winner by highlighting France’s world-number-one ranking, their squad value of €1.48 billion — the highest of any nation in the tournament — Kylian Mbappé’s outstanding individual form, and Didier Deschamps’ 14 years as France’s head coach, giving them the decisive edge over the reigning champions Argentina in the final.”
You can see the entire AI-predicted bracket of the 2026 World Cup below, where you can also learn about the entire process of the analysis in detail. To see the teams most likely to progress from the group stages (ranked one by one) as well as the detailed predicted outcome of the Round of 32, you can have a look here.
The Process
Specifically, for each team, AI was given:
- Tournament Context: Group assignment (A–L), ranking (June 2026 edition), confederation, and host nation status.
- Recent Form: Last 10 international match results (W–D–L), goals scored and conceded, and SofaScore average team rating.
- Qualifying Campaign: Full qualifying record (W–D–L), goals scored, conceded, and goal difference, plus the qualifying path taken.
- Continental Performance: Best finish in the last two editions of the team’s confederation tournament (e.g., UEFA Euro, Copa América, AFCON, AFC Asian Cup, CONCACAF Gold Cup).
- World Cup History: Total appearances, best ever finish, most recent tournament result, and all-time World Cup record (P, W, D, L, GF, GA, GD).
- Squad Quality & Depth: Total squad market value (€M), average squad age, and percentage of players based outside their home league.
- Key Players of the Season: Top 3 goalscorers and top 3 assist providers from the 2025/26 club season.
- Coach Profile: Years in charge of the national team and major career achievements.
- Logistics: Pre-tournament friendly schedule, club season end date for the majority of the squad, and travel distance from home country to group stage venues.
After being fed all the data, AI predicted the outcome of all 12 group stages, ranking the teams most likely to progress. Subsequently, the full bracket for the 2026 World Cup was filled out based on AI’s predictions — Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, and the Final.
AI (Claude’s Sonnet 4.6) provided detailed justifications for every single prediction, giving 57 pages and 19,000 words worth of matchup-by-matchup explanations, which can be shared upon request.
“Dark Horses” of the Tournament according to AI
Additionally, AI was asked to utilise the stats provided and name the top 5 teams it considers to be the “dark horses” of the tournament — nations capable of surprising and pulling off a deep run.
Norway was named as the most likely “dark horse”, with AI pointing to Erling Haaland’s extraordinary 16-goal season, Martin Ødegaard’s 7 assists, and a dominant qualifying campaign as the key reasons behind Norway’s potential to outperform expectations at their first World Cup since 1998.
The remaining top 5 “dark horses” of the tournament (according to AI) are: Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Morocco, and DR Congo, respectively.