By Estea Rademeyer, Sports Journalist.
Photo Credit: All Blacks.
There is a distinct, unmistakable chill running through the build-up to Saturday’s collision at Ellis Park. It is the cold, unyielding reality of history, and no amount of media posturing, strategic diplomacy, or pre-match tactical banter can disguise it.
When Dave Rennie’s All Blacks step out onto the high-altitude turf in Doornfontein, they will be attempting to scale a psychological Everest. Deep down, beneath Ardie Savea’s stoic media briefings and Will Jordan’s pragmatism, the ghosts of recent history loom large.
The agonizing one-point heartbreak of the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final in Paris still lingers. But even more acute is the raw, unhealed scar of last year’s humiliating 43-10 thrashing at Sky Stadium in Wellington, a record-breaking defeat that shattered the aura of Kiwi invincibility and sent shockwaves through New Zealand rugby. The coaching staff has changed, however the scars remain.
The central question hovering over Johannesburg is not whether the All Blacks desire revenge. It is whether this evolving squad is good enough to take it.
Former All Blacks flyhalf Andrew Mehrtens, who famously orchestrated New Zealand’s 1996 series victory on South African soil, did not mince his words this week. Mehrtens issued a sobering warning to his countrymen. “I can just imagine the Boks will come out with a ferocity that you don’t even see in a World Cup final,”
Mehrtens further stated that “This will be another step up, even from a World Cup final, in terms of intensity. In their heart of hearts, the All Blacks will know this is potentially the toughest assignment of all four Tests. This one really seems like the biggest mountain to climb.”
Mehrtens’ assessment is rooted in cold, hard numbers. The Springboks have won 10 of their 16 Tests against New Zealand at Ellis Park, including their most recent 31-27 victory in 2024. Furthermore, South Africa enter this clash having won five of their last six Tests against their oldest foe.
For the All Blacks, who have cycled through talent while unearthing promising prospects like flank Anton Segner, flyhalf Ruben Love, and No 8 Peter Lakai, the gap in big-match experience is stark.
While Damian de Allende prepares to win his 100th Test cap on Saturday, with Pieter-Steph du Toit set to follow suit in the second Test, New Zealand are relying on players who are experiencing the unique furnace of South African rugby for the very first time.
To counter the Springbok juggernaut, Rennie has recalled his heavy hitters after resting them during the warm-up clashes against the Stormers, Sharks, and Bulls. Captain Ardie Savea, earning his 110th cap in his 18th outing against the Boks, returns alongside scrumhalf Cam Roigard, fullback Damian McKenzie, and lethal wing Will Jordan.
Savea, who spent the early part of the tour recharging after a grueling 19-month stretch across Super Rugby and Japan, understands the sheer magnitude of the task. “Every game against the Springboks is physical and challenging, “Savea admitted on Friday. “They are at the peak of their game… It takes you to places where you can kind of question yourself, but as an All Black, that’s where you kind of want to be.”
Asked if the upcoming four weeks would push his side to new limits, Savea offered a telling, minimalist response: “I hope so, we’ll find out tomorrow.”
Jordan, who has featured 10 times against the Boks, winning four but also enduring that 43-10 nightmare in Wellington, reflected on the challenge of holding off a Springbok storm. “Going into halftime, and with even 20 minutes to go, we felt we were right in it,” Jordan recalled of last year’s record defeat. “They got a bit of a roll in those last 15 to 20 minutes, and we struggled to deal with that.”
The lead-up has not been without its tactical skirmishes. Bok assistant coach Felix Jones ruffled feathers earlier in the week by publicly detailing complaints from South African URC franchises regarding New Zealand’s breakdown techniques, citing “tucked shoulders,” leg-pulling at lineouts, and maul interference.
Rennie fired back, questioning why the Springboks were choosing to air their grievances through the media rather than official channels. Yet, Rennie knows discipline remains his side’s Achilles heel; the All Blacks copped three yellow cards in their tour opener against the Stormers before cleaning up their act against the Bulls. Against a Bok side that turns territorial penalties into points with military precision, any lapse in discipline will be fatal.
Interestingly, former All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen believes the Springboks’ relentless drive stems from a purpose deeper than rugby itself. “They play for more than just themselves, which makes them dangerous,” Hansen noted, praising Rassie Erasmus for forging a side motivated by national unity and staggering squad depth.
Rennie does hold one intriguing ace: a surprisingly formidable personal record against Erasmus’ Boks, having won three of his four matches against South Africa during his tenure with Australia. His stoic, calculated approach has undeniably kept the Bok brain trust on high alert.
However, over a grueling four-Test marathon, depth and execution usually prevail. For New Zealand, the entire tour hinges on Saturday. If they lose in Johannesburg, it is impossible to see them beating this settled, double-World-Champion Springbok team three weekends in a row. To avenge the heartbreaks of Paris and Wellington, the All Blacks cannot merely rely on ambition, they will need to deliver a performance bordering on perfection.
Date: Saturday, August 22
Venue: 10bet Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17.10 (15.10 GMT; 03.10 NZST Sunday, August 23)
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
South Africa – 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortjé, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nché.
Bench: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 André Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter.