By Lehlohonolo Lehana.
South Africa has enjoyed two months of no load shedding in April and May, this is the longest period without power cuts since 2021.
Eskom highlighted that the last time South Africa had more than 51 days without load shedding was between 5 December 2021 and 2 February 2022.
The power utility credited its Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which commenced in March 2023, for its generation fleet’s improved performance and reliability.
The plan included accelerating planned maintenance, increased preventative maintenance, major plant refurbishments, and life extension projects.
The idea of the return of power cuts has been trending on social media leading up to election day on Wednesday.
Eskom said, its “fake news” that load shedding will resume immediately after Wednesday’s general election.
“Our generation availability continues to perform well as a result of the Generation Recovery Plan that commenced in March 2023, as well as our intensive planned maintenance,” said Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena.
“Unplanned outages are averaging at 12 500MW, below what was anticipated for our winter outlook. The energy availability factor of four of our power stations is performing above 70%. Our year-to-date EAF is improving gradually and is currently at 60.73%.”
Electricity demand is 6% less in 2024 than in 2023. This is partly because many businesses and households have installed rooftop solar.
During winter, the electricity demand in South Africa is around 6,000 MW higher than during summer.
During its Winter 2024 Outlook presentation, Eskom said South Africans may see load shedding this winter, but it will likely be limited to stage 2.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said their likely risk scenario indicates load shedding will remain at stage 2 and below.
Marokane said their likely scenario, which assumes an average of 15,500MW of breakdowns, indicates that load shedding will be limited to stage 2.
Should the worst-case scenario be realised, where breakdowns hit 17,000MW, load shedding could hit stage 5.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa also warned that load shedding was not a thing of the past and that Eskom will experience setbacks in the future.
“We are still working on the reliability of Eskom’s generating units, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load shedding is behind us,” he said.