By Mike Cohen.
South African political parties that have presided over crumbling infrastructure and a collapse in electricity and water provision face a reckoning in Wednesday’s municipal elections.
Voting began at 7 a.m. local time and is due to end at 9 p.m., with the electoral commission expected to release the results within three days. More than 29 million people have registered to cast ballots in the contest for seats in the 257 local and district councils, with disillusionment running high over how many are being managed.
Much of the anger over potholed roads and slipshod basic services have been directed against President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress, which lost its national majority in 2024 elections for the first time since it took power three decades earlier.
A series of opinion polls show its support slipping further, with the Democratic Alliance, its main rival, and former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MK Party, making gains.
The surveys also suggest that an outright winner is unlikely to emerge in most of the eight biggest municipalities.
These are some of the key things to watch in the election:
Voter turnout
South Africans’ interest in politics has been on a downward trend for decades, and millions of those who are eligible to vote on Wednesday didn’t register.
Just 17% of adults recently surveyed by the Human Sciences Research Council said they were satisfied with the country’s democratic trajectory, while 68% expressed active dissatisfaction.
In an Ipsos poll of 2 533 registered voters, half of respondents said no party represented their views, while 68% said politicians couldn’t be trusted.
A low turnout may favour the DA, which has historically been better than its opponents at getting supporters to the polls. Investors will be watching for any surge in backing for populist opposition parties and what that could mean for the stability of the ANC-led governing alliance, which has prioritised economic growth and job creation.
Insecurity
In a country with mass unemployment, municipal council seats are prized positions and the runup to this election and its predecessors has been marred by the assassination of a number of candidates. Voting in the past has tended to be peaceful though, and the results have generally been regarded as credible — although Zuma’s party did challenge the outcome of the 2024 general elections in court.
The eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, which has recently been the epicentre of an outbreak of xenophobic violence, is seen as a potential flashpoint, and Ramaphosa authorised the deployment of 510 soldiers to the region until the end of this month to help the police maintain order.
The battle for control of Johannesburg
Currently run by an ANC-alliance, South Africa’s economic hub has been dogged by years of political instability and mismanagement, with residents subjected to regular electricity and water outages.
The DA is fielding its former leader Helen Zille as its mayoral candidate. One of the country’s best-known politicians, she previously served as the mayor of Cape Town, and most polls show her winning the biggest share of the vote.
She’s likely to fall well short of securing a majority though, meaning the city will probably continue being run by a fractious coalition.
The DA’s bid to retain power in Cape Town
Widely considered to be the country’s best-run city, Cape Town has been governed by the DA since 2006 and party leader Geordin Hill-Lewis stands a good chance of winning a second five-year term as mayor.
The party isn’t assured of retaining its outright majority, however, with the Patriotic Alliance and Freedom Front Plus making inroads into its support base.
There has also been a backlash over a surge in housing costs that’s largely been driven by internal migration and an influx of tourists, while ratepayers are up in arms over surging municipal levies.
Zuma served as South Africa’s president for almost nine scandal-marred years before the ANC forced him to resign in 2018. He later became the driving force behind MK Party, which favours nationalising banks and mines, and it won almost 15% of the vote in the 2024 election.
Zuma remains popular in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province, and his party looks set to win control of several towns there in its maiden municipal election, including Ethekwini, which encompasses the eastern port city of Durban.
The party suffered a setback last month, when Zuma, 84, was hospitalised for almost two weeks, preventing him from campaigning. The MK Party said he was suffering from fatigue and has recovered,